Post-Pandemic Forecast 2.0 😩

One year ago on these pages, I wrote a piece on what the real estate market might look like “post-pandemic.” I accept responsibility for what may have been wishful thinking. 2022 has begun with the Delta and Omicron variants that will certainly affect the economy as a whole, including the residential real estate sector. The good news is that despite the bad health associated with the coronavirus, the health of the real estate market in Arlington has remained strong during the pandemic, and a recent analysis by a group of experts does not foresee major disruptions in the new year.
Last month the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR), in conjunction with the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University (GMU-CRA), issued a consensus forecast for the NVAR region’s housing market in 2022. This forecast was developed by a panel of experts from differing sectors of the real estate industry to review preliminary forecasts developed by GMU-CRA economists. Here are some of the key findings of the panel:
• Emerging research is pointing to more evidence that immunization and sensible personal behavior may be sufficient to induce the
economy to move to a post-pandemic footing.
• The Greater D.C. regional economy will continue to perform well bolstered by the technology sector and supported by new rounds
of federal spending.
• High wage sectors of the economy will continue to have more openings than workers, so jobs are plentiful and households will gain
confidence in making major purchases – such as homes.
• The Federal Reserve will implement a reduction in asset purchases and will likely raise interest rates. This and stock market corrections will contribute to upward pressures on mortgage rates, which may be at or near 4.0% by year end (still low but potentially
pushing some buyers out of affordability).
• In the Arlington single family home market, prices will increase by 3.5%, units sold will increase by 1.7% and inventory will decrease
by 9.4%.
It’s certainly interesting that even with interest rates going up, home prices in Arlington are expected to remain strong this year. I constantly monitor the local real estate market and the broader economy generally in order to provide my clients with the very best, most well-informed advice and services. Just ask my neighborhood clients, whom I am happy to refer as references. How can I assist you in 2022?
For more information on this forecast, go to:

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